SustainAxis Academy · M&E Fundamentals · Module 2 Reading

Theory of Change & the Results Framework

The five links of the results chain, the output–outcome distinction, and how to read a logframe.

The results chain at a glance

A results chain is the causal logic of a project, in five links:

Inputs are the resources you bring: funds, staff, seed, transport, materials.
Activities are what you do with them: train farmers, set up demonstration plots, distribute seed.
Outputs are the immediate, countable products of those activities: 200 farmers trained, 10 demonstration plots established.
Outcomes are the changes in what people know and do as a result: trained farmers actually adopt climate-smart practices.
Impact is the long-term, higher change the outcomes build towards: yields, incomes and food security improve in the district.

The one distinction to never forget

An output is what you delivered. An outcome is what changed. "200 farmers trained" is an output. "200 farmers now planting on time and spacing correctly" is an outcome. A borehole drilled is an output; a community drinking safe water is the outcome. Projects that confuse the two end up reporting activity instead of change.

A few more terms

Theory of Change: The explanation of how and why the change is expected to happen, including the assumptions the project depends on. It is the reasoning; the logframe is the summary table.
Logframe (logical framework): A single table that sets out the project logic level by level, with an indicator, a means of verification, and the assumptions for each level. Indicators themselves are covered fully in Module 3.
Means of verification: Simply where the proof will come from: attendance sheets, KoboToolbox monitoring records, a baseline and endline survey, demonstration plot records.
Assumption: An external condition you are relying on but do not control, such as adequate rains, timely seed delivery, stable prices, or a community that stays settled.

A sample one-page logframe: the farmer training project

Read from the bottom upward, the way the project logic actually flows. The targets and figures here are illustrative.

Level	Narrative summary	Example indicator	Means of verification	Key assumptions
Impact / Goal	Improved food security and incomes for farming households in the district	Change in average maize yield and household income from baseline to endline	Baseline and endline household survey; district and Ghana Statistical Service data	Rains adequate; market prices stable
Outcome	Trained farmers adopt climate-smart practices	Share of trained farmers using correct spacing, timely planting and recommended fertiliser by endline (illustrative target: 70%)	Endline survey; demonstration plot records; KoboToolbox monitoring	Farmers can access the improved seed; they judge the method worth the effort
Outputs	Farmers trained; demonstration plots established; improved seed distributed	200 farmers trained; 10 demonstration plots established; seed delivered to 200 farmers	Training attendance sheets; field officer KoboToolbox records	Seed and materials arrive before planting
Activities	Deliver the training; set up the demonstration plots; distribute the seed	Activities completed on schedule and on budget	Work plans; monthly activity reports	Trainers and transport available; communities accessible and settled

How to read it: the bottom row is the day-to-day work, and each row above it is the result that work should produce. The indicator column tells you what to measure at each level, the means of verification tells you where the evidence comes from, and the assumptions column names what must hold true for one level to lead to the next. When an evaluation later asks why a project did or did not work, the answer is very often hiding in a broken assumption.